As your mortgage broker, here’s the cleanest way I can summarize where we are at the end of 2025: the market has moved past the “crash vs. no crash” debate, and into a payment-driven reality. Prices in some areas may be flatter, but the bigger day-to-day factor for buyers is still affordability.

The biggest force shaping your options: affordability

Mortgage rates are lower than they were this time last year, but they’re still high enough to keep payments tight. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed at 6.19% as of December 4, 2025 (15-year fixed 5.44%). Even small changes at these levels can swing buying power more than people expect.

That affordability pressure is also showing up in who can participate. The National Association of Realtors’ latest Profile shows first-time buyers at a historic low (21%), with the median first-time buyer age now 40. This means that more buyers are being forced to wait longer, save longer, and stretch more to make the math work.

About the “50-year mortgage” chatter

You may see more headlines about ultra-long terms (40- or 50-year mortgages). Reuters reported that a U.S. Treasury adviser recently said lower rates would likely eliminate the need for a 50-year mortgage concept being floated in the affordability conversation. I find the 40 or 50 year mortgage to be troubling – it’s a tool that is trying to reduce the payment without fixing the underlying affordability issue.

What this means for you heading into 2026

This is a market where the winners aren’t the people who “predict” rates—it’s the people who plan. For buyers, that means:

  • Getting pre-approved based on the monthly number, not just the purchase price
  • Seller concessions used to reduce down payment and payment impact (where leverage allows)
  • Evaluating temporary buydowns / buydown structures where they make real sense (and not when they don’t)

For sellers, it means recognizing that buyers are incredibly payment-sensitive—so price, condition, and terms matter more than they did in the easy-money years.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, refinancing, or just want to check your options for 2026, please reach out to me anytime.  Thank you, and have a great day!